Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.