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It was 60 days ago when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as his coach berated him for missing a through-ball. Back then, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were an indicator or the reason of the team's broader struggles.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

This weekend, however, the manager's outburst was far more favourable. After the England international drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician ripped off his winter coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to ten wins in a row and after failing to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, are somehow just three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?

This is a particularly tough proposition to address. Past precedent, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Moreover, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, even as the victories have piled up.

As per the data, on just two occasions have Villa had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team that have just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans appear strangely fragile – but currently the tight outcomes are falling their way.

The Reliant Strategy

Their recent policy seems to be to trade blows with rivals and wait for their talisman to bail them out with two precise efforts. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened when facing United.

His opener stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Can It Last?

Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those matches.

A statistical correction could be the biggest rival the club will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, surely, cannot maintain drilling the football into the top corner forever.

Potential for Growth

Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still find their top level.

• The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
• The winger may rediscover the player he showed during his peak.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.

This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.

Enjoying the Ride

Yet, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable the team would be third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge while looking like a vital Three Lions star.

The current run is to be savoured exactly since it seems so surreal. When Rogers positioned himself before the North End after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.