A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses something to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."